In a year that has seen geopolitical conflict, renewed spikes in inflation, soaring energy prices, the nomination of a new US Fed chair, and fears of artificial intelligence disruption, stock market volatility has actually been average by historical standards.
This is according to new insights from Morningstar Indexes, based on the CRSP US Total Market Index and the CRSP US Stock Database, covering market returns and composition since 1926.
Using the standard deviation of daily returns, the volatility of the CRSP US Total Market Index for 2026 through April 10 was 15% on an annualized basis. Interestingly, when the Morningstar Indexes team analyzed CRSP’s market capitalization-weighted portfolio of all stocks listed on major US exchanges going back to 1926, the average annual standard deviation of these returns over a century was 14.92%.
Of course, being assured that market volatility in 2026 is “average” by historical standards may feel like cold comfort for investors navigating a bumpy road this year. Indeed, the analysis goes on to show the peaks and valleys that actually occurred over 100 years of “average” US equity market returns.
Dan Lefkovitz — Strategist, Morningstar Indexes:
“Though we’ve only seen an average level of volatility this year, that “average” is skewed by extremes. One of those extreme periods of volatility came last year, driven by tariff announcements. Although volatility is a feature not a bug of equity market investing, it can induce poor investor behavior. When investors react to volatility by exiting the market, they can miss out on the long-term potential of stocks.”
In February 2026, the acquisition of CRSP brought the CRSP Market Indexes—benchmarks for over $3 trillion in U.S. equities—into the Morningstar Indexes family. Additionally, the CRSP Research Data Products, renowned for their academic rigor, historical depth, and accuracy, will further enhance Morningstar’s equity research and data capabilities. This integration unites two trusted sources of market insight, reinforcing a shared commitment to transparency, quality, and investor-focused solutions.
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